EU Ups Sanctions on Iran-Will it Work? By Ambassador mo

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European Union has joined US on oil/payments, but what about China, Russia or even immediate neighbors? Iran’s response so far has been more defiance. That cycle can be expected over next few weeks. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be threatened, but in end Iran does not want to give an excuse for a full blown military strike against its territory by the US/EU/NATO. The EU sanctions on Iran oil exports though do go into effect with respect to current flows/contracts until midsummer (as EU nations seeks alternatives). That also gives Iran more time to seek out alternatives to sell its oil – China and Russia have shown not inclination to join the oil exports sanctions on Iran. Most Asian Tigers, as Japan, have given some symbolic backing but there dependence on energy imports will cause them to continue buying Iran oil directly or indirectly. China, India, Russia may all exploit the pressure on Iran from the West to negotiate discounted purchases. Read –“Iran Nuclear Conflict-The Other Battlefront” - Iran’s immediate neighbors will look to low-key the entire debate. They cannot to offend Washington/Brussels nor provoke Tehran, and in end many of Iran’s neighbors will continue trade as much as possible as before. The new sanctions will not stop Iran. Washington needs to show it is doing something more, especially in advance of 2012 elections. The new sanctions will hurt oil consuming countries, but Tehran is even more likely to feel the economic pain. In the medium term, Tehran will have to try to seek a negotiated resolution. Otherwise, the sanctions will erode the regime’s broader standing among the domestic small merchant class – the backbone of the establishment support for the Iran regime. However, a resolution will not come easy and the negotiations once they start will be an extended round of bluff and huff. The problem for Tehran is that regime change may be increasingly a coalescing objective in western capitals thus making any acceptable resolution from their perspective even more illusionary. This is the point where miscalculations can come into play by any of the players sitting around this poker table. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow at DiplomaticallyX FOLLOW mo @MuhamedSacirbeyand oppression.

About the author


"Voice of the Global Citizen"- Diplomatically Incorrect ( provide film and written reports on issues reflecting diplomatic discourse and the global citizen. Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey (@MuhamedSacirbey) is former Foreign Minister Ambassador of Bosnia & Herzegovina at the United Nations. "Mo" is also signatory of the Rome Conference/Treaty establishing the International…

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