In Indo Afghan Strategic pact,concluded during Afghan President Karzai’s October 2011 visit to India,India has pledged to trained and equip Afghan national army and jointly fight terrorism.These developments are alarming for Pakistan given India’s tilt towards non-Pashtun sections of Afghan people.As India will equip many Northern Alliance backed military so Pakistan can be at the receiving end given the hostility of both India and Northern Alliance backed wings of Afghan army .Apart from this,the joint Indo-Afghan activities of subversion in Baluchistan cannot be ignored .The overall logic behind these fears is based upon India’s wish to weaken Pakistan’s deterrence and using Afghan soil for Pakistan’s Strategic encirclement.
This cyclic pattern of her relationship now moves from the external towards the internal dimension. Internal stability of a country is based upon its economic well being and economic well being depends upon sufficient energy resources and their management.At present Pakistan is suffering through energy crunch with almost 4000 MW deficit in terms of demand supply equation.This energy crisis has led to the eclosure of many industrial units hence rendering a large number people unemployed.According to the planning Commision of Pakistan the energy shortages caused 3 to 4 percent GDP loss in financial year 2010-2011 .Another document the Asian development Banks Report April 2011 also indicates that energy crisis cause fall in economic growth by two percent annually.In the light of this sorry state of affairs,Pakistan faces a major dilemma vis-à-vis her energy pipeline project,Iran-Pakistan Pipeline,as UN sanctions bar any transactions with Iran.The UNSC Resolution 1929 passed in June 2010 is binding on all countries of the world including Pakistan.What constituted dilemma is Pakistan’s bilateral agreement with Iran regarding gas purchase concluded on May 24,2009.
According to this agreement Pakistan has to construct 700 k.m pipeline to connect with the Iranian part of pipeline by 2014.Failing to which Pakistan will have to pay 2 million dollars per day as a compensation money to Iran .If Pakistan is to follow her bilateral agreement with Iran she will be considered as defying the United Nations and vice versa.Simply two million US dollar per day as compensation to Iran is some thing beyond our financial strength."Between the devil and the deep sea" best expresses Pakistan's state of affairs in this regard .This energy crunch is severely jolting our economy.