Will Iran Nuclear Talks Succeed?

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Depends on your perspective and definition of success. No way to stop Iran from achieving the knowledge/capability to ultimately have capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Its immediate objective probably is not to build a bomb. Iran’s regime can probably employ the potential more effectively as a strategic advantage then it could an actual nuclear arsenal. It is somewhat similar to Israel’s strategy of nuclear ambiguity, although the latter actually does posses a nuclear arsenal.

 

The talks underway again are really designed to contain Iran’s aspirations – keep Iran from developing an actual weapon and perhaps slow down the inevitable capability. The effort also appears almost as much to be focused on Israel’s current government. If Israel executes a strike, it is likely to roll the region and the world petroleum markets into a dangerous spiral of conflict and price spikes, all inevitably tossing the globe into deeper economic recession. The success of such an Israeli strike though remains highly doubtful, including by assessment of some of Israel’s own military/intelligence chief. Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats/presumed preparations of a pre-emptive strike appear uncharacteristically public. As we have written, Netanyahu may be employing a bluff as well as diversion from Palestinian cries for a more committed Israeli negotiating stance. See our Blog for Film: “Netanyahu’s Iran Diversion”.

 

President Obama also understands the limitations to what degree the current or even any new Iranian regime can be prevented from gaining the nuclear capability even if an arsenal may be deterred. Obama is playing chess with Netanyahu and Mitt Romney. He must appear that he is doing something even if the options are limited. It would be risky to define American power in highly guarded terms, especially facing a Republican electoral opponent and an overtly belligerent Israeli Prime Minister (regardless of motive/objective of latter).

 

Thus a process, almost any credible process, is preferred to the alternative of more undefined alternatives. Keeping Iran from building actual weapons, Israel from actually executing a military strike and Mitt Romney from employing the issue as an election year tool is probably the most realistic/expedient Obama Administration agenda. IAEA (UN Nuclear Agency) inspections now again in place and “Six-Party Talks” incorporating US European allies provide the most advantageous optics for Iran, Washington, Brussels and the UN. In the meantime, we cam expect the continuation of a cyber and covert war, from viruses to targeted assassinations intended to undermine the breadth and speed of Iran advancing its knowledge/capability.  See our Blog for Film: “Iran Nuclear Talks for More Talks”.

 

 Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey - FOLLOW mo @MuhamedSacirbey



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UN Photos: (in order) Netanyahu, Ahmadinejad & Obama.

 



About the author

DiplomaticallyIncorrect

"Voice of the Global Citizen"- Diplomatically Incorrect (diplomaticallyincorrect.org) provide film and written reports on issues reflecting diplomatic discourse and the global citizen. Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey (@MuhamedSacirbey) is former Foreign Minister Ambassador of Bosnia & Herzegovina at the United Nations. "Mo" is also signatory of the Rome Conference/Treaty establishing the International…

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