Last week I was reading an article about a recent business deal. One of the principals said that he believed that bitcoin was too risky and would end up just going away. Seems like almost every day, I hear about some scandal, and another person saying that Bitcoin is coming to and end. Sometimes, a Bitlander will reel even reel off a microblog talking about Bitcoins coming to and end.
If you research back to the start of Bitcoin, it seems like Bitcoin you find that this sense of the impending doom for Bitcoin goes back to its start, and has never stopped. Yet, Bitcoins repeated deaths, and resurrections seem to have no impact on the long term viability of the coin. Sure, Bitcoin is volatile. When you think about it, it is strange when people complain that you cannot use Bitcoin as a currency because it has not "stabalized".
I think it is safe to assume that Bitcoin is not going to stabalize any time soon, and if it did that... that would be the beginning of the end. Bitcoin is at the start of something very big... we know that... nobody really understands how big or how it will grow... but it does not require Bitcoin specifically. If Bitcoin did not have the flexibility to develop by adaptation to the economic developments of the day, Bitcoin would certainly not survive. Bitcoin's volatility is the reflection of its ability to adapt... perhaps moving to an extreme, and then having to correct, but always retaining a significant value exchanging potential.
Why do so many people talk about Bitcoin's death? Why, in particular, does the speaker so frequently turn out to be a once Bitcoin enthusiast now turned bitter? I think it is because those who work with Bitcoin want to have a sense that they understand what is going on with it. They follow it closely for a time, think they know what to expect, and just when they think they know beforehand what will come next, something totally different happens. After this happens several times, the idea of predicting Bitcoin's future becomes exhausting. You will only maintain your bitcoin stamina if you accept the notion that Bitcoin's future is utterly unpredictable. It is larger than any of use, larger than the ability of one person to comprehend, and if it is your purpose to comprehend Bitcoin, than the Bitcoin monster certainly will swallow up your positive state of mind.
I think that it is unlikely that Bitcoin is going to take a sudden turn, that is so far for the worse, that Bitcoin sort of disappears from the scene. That is because Bitcoin is decentralized. It is already so large that it absorbs the impact of major scandals. While Bitcoin suffers in one section of the world, the users in other parts of the world are acting as if nothing is different. Sure, the price goes down, and that requires certain responses, but with a little common sense you can establish a reference point, or ballpark figure, as to how much value bitcoin conveys, independent of the price shocks. If you have something of a bitcoin cushion, then the solution for price decreases is, quite simply to wait for the price to go back up again.
As far as the business principal who predicted that Bitcoin would disappear? After his announcement, the market value of Bitcoin went up 12%.
