Has Petrobras Stock Finally Bottomed Out?

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Is Petrobras about to stage a comeback? Investors probably shouldn’t get their hopes up.

Shares of Brazil’s beleaguered oil giant Petrobras rose as much as 8% on Friday before settling 6.7% higher. Despite a massive corruption scandal, a new CEO without a hint of oil experience let alone managing under duress, value hunters think Petrobras might have hit bottom.

On Wednesday, Norwegian based Skagen Funds, led by Kristoffer Stensrud’s 13 year old Kon Tiki equity fund, gobbled up some PBR shares on the cheap. The $6 billion Kon Tiki now has around 0.46% of its portfolio invested in the corrupt driller.

Investors shouldn’t get ahead of themselves here, however. Friday is unlikely to signal a trend upward. Petrobras is cheap for a reason.

On February 9, legendary emerging markets investor Mark Mobius told the Wall Street Journal in São Paulo that he was getting more bullish on Brazil. Petrobras on the other hand…

Damage from corruption. Petrobras will likely lose at least 10% of its market cap to fraud.

Mobius was quoted saying he was “surprised and blindsided” by the corruption scandal and is not a buyer at this time.

Friday brought with it some speculation that new CEO Aldemir Bendine, ex-president of Banco do Brasil, yet another state-controlled entity, might spin off some of Petrobras’ assets to recapitalize. He hinted of that in an interview on Thursday. If Bendine sells assets, the market believes Petrobras shares will rise quickly.

“If Bendine does the same thing he’s done at Banco do Brasil, we will be in for a big surprise,” says Raphael Juan, a fund manager at BBT Asset in São Paulo. He spun off some of the bank’s assets to raise funds.

“Petrobras needs to sell some of its assets to raise capital. It can’t go on like this,” Juan says, adding that one possibility is Petrobras selling some of its positions in Brazil’s deep-sea oil and gas fields off the coasts of Rio and São Paulo states. If Bendine committed to that, Juan says, share prices will to return to $9 in no time, and possibly return to double digits.

“The market has begun to speculate about these possibilities,” Juan told FORBES in an email, taking a break from his Carnaval vacation. “We’re watching this movement closely and that is why our funds still hold Petrobras,” he says.

Petrobras shares are down nearly 85% in the last five years. Much of the decline has come following increased government interference in the company. Brasilia likes to use Petrobras as a means to control inflation by keeping gasoline prices unprofitable for the firm. But the death knell in the last year has been a massive corruption scandal.

Petrobras executives colluded with construction partners on large refinery projects to help soak the state, and shareholders who are now suing the company in class action suits in New York.

Some of the money went to line the pockets of executives at brand named construction firms like Camargo Corrêa. Other cash was shipped in suitcases to politicians and bureaucrats for political favors. Either way, the smearing of Petrobras’ image will take years to clean.

Top executives resigned two weeks ago, led by Maria Graças Foster, a personal friend of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff.

Corporate partners are feeling pain similar to that of Petrobras shareholders.

Last week, Seadrill said it removed a planned $1.1 billion in Petrobras offshore drilling contracts from its backlog. That doesn’t mean that Petrobras has plans to cancel those orders. It just means that Seadrill doesn’t believe Petrobras will fulfill them in the time agreed upon, and has decided in fairness to shareholders to cut it from its books. The company’s share took a 5.3% hit on Friday; the complete opposite direction of Petrobras.

Bendine’s comments drove much of the market on Friday, São Paulo based investors told FORBES.

Like the differences in direction between Seadrill and Petrobras, Bendine says he is going to set Petrobras on a different course.

Foster and the leadership before her were all about exploration and development of the new pre-salt finds in the famed Campos and Santos basins.

With oil under $60 a barrel, and gasoline prices never really a profit motive, what motive does Petrobras have now to drill like it did before?

It might be wiser to cut, run and clean house while they’re at it. Investors on Friday are banking on it.

Still, Petrobras will remain a volatile trade. It will not follow oils fortunes should oil prices start to rise. That’s because the new board of directors said that the corruption scandal cost the company a minimum of $3 billion. Then they scared everyone by saying it could have cost the company as much as $30 billion.

Petrobras’ market cap is $45 billion.

“A write-down of this magnitude would create enormous damage,” says Thomaz Brandão, a partner at investment banking firm Gradual in São Paulo. “That’s why you still have a lot of short sellers, a lot of investors buying credit default swaps. We see vulture funds buying bonds and looking for a default. If you get a default, investors that are buying default swaps and shorting are going to make a lot of money even if they lose some money in the short-term. Bendine says we’ll finally see third quarter earnings by the end of March. The company’s official position is the end of May. For now,” says Brandão, “there’s going to be volume on both sides of the Petrobras trade.”

Investors in Petrobras’ ADRs will have to wait until Tuesday to see where the market takes those shares. The NYSE is closed in observance of President’s Day on Monday.

 



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