Macroeconomic management through inflation targeting

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Facing the Egyptian economy since the beginning of 2001 many challenges as a result of extension of the transitional period and the accompanying political instability and loss of a security reflected negatively on all economic indicators , in the past two years was the economic landscape is managed in terms of crisis management , but today we have to move on to the macro economic management , the stability at the macroeconomic come by employing a combination of fiscal and monetary policies are transparent . This contributes to the economic environment is characterized by non- inflationary growth rates , leading to attract and promote private investment , both domestic and foreign alike to support the provision of employment opportunities and improve the standard of living of the community.

It comes after the inflation targeting framework that showed lack of other frameworks to provide it access to the ultimate goal , which is to control inflation in the light of the changes that occur in the local and global economies . These include frameworks targeting monetary aggregates or targeting the exchange rate targets and intermediate aspire to control inflation and access to low inflation and economic growth portfolio .

The framework of inflation targeting (ie, make it a goal to control ) part of the economic policies are transparent and subject to technical rules and not to selective policies . The framework includes maintaining price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy , and should be selected and the Declaration of numerical target for inflation target working organizers of the macro economic management on the target .

It is worth mentioning that the framework of inflation targeting does not lose sight of economic growth and employment , on the contrary , the output gap - the gap between the growth rates and the rate of growth of the maximum non-inflationary - are taken into account in detail and the reasons leading to the rise or decline taught and is considered one of the most important variables that interfere in decisions monetary policy .

There are several requirements for inflation targeting is the most important : fiscal discipline « reduce the budget deficit is consistent with economic growth is inflationary » , building a strong banking sector and effective ever solvency of the banking and high liquidity , the independence of the central bank and , in particular, operational independence , transparency and communication with stakeholders effectively , include banks , investors , the public, academia , journalism , research centers, local and international institutions , the establishment of infrastructure technology and strong technical capable of economic analysis and the formulation of sophisticated models to predict inflation for the implementation of monetary policy, proactive , and improve the quality and accuracy of various economic data .

The experiments showed the International that the transition to the framework of inflation targeting may vary from one state to another , for example, spent the Republic of Chile ten years until I moved to full frame for inflation targeting , while hastened other countries such as the Czech Republic in the adoption of this framework is not easy or necessary to State met all the requirements , but the question of the degree of readiness for many of them , states that adopt this framework has been able to satisfy the requirements sufficiently .

Moreover , should the administrators of the macro-economy to maximize coordination between the relevant government agencies , to ensure unity of purpose and action to achieve transparency through continued regular advertiser. This comes by targeting the rate of inflation as a target directly to the advertiser becomes the ultimate inflation -based nominal anchor for the national economy . And wrapped around the goal of fiscal policy , monetary and trade through the country concerned has sought to adopt a framework of inflation targeting .

After listing the positive returns from the adoption of inflation targeting framework , we find that the question arises: Why did not Egypt applied until now an official framework for monetary policy ?

The answer is in the nature of inflation , which it is clear that a paid primarily in recent years by a series of shocks local and global , which is aggravated by several factors, including : price distortions resulting from monopolistic practices , a deficit in the supply of goods as a result of a shortage of production or increase exports at the expense of the local market. and bottlenecks in supply caused by deficiencies in the distribution channels .

Therefore, efforts must be mobilized government to rein in rising prices , although the inflation targeting is a framework for monetary policy , the battle to control inflation does not begin and end at the central bank , and therefore should be a national objective come together for him organizers of the macro economic management .

One of the main features that it combines the depth technical / artistic concepts and to simplify the declaration inflation target and publish periodic reports containing specialized analysis of economic developments and the reasons for the deviation from the actual inflation rate target in the event of this happening .

* Deputy Governor of Central Egyptian



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